Adaptation and use of forecasting scenarios: a study of the municipal tourism body of Natal

Abstract

In an environment of uncertainty and strong competition like that of the tourism sector, the methodology of scenarios provides an alternative for enabling organizations to strengthen their strategic processes. This work presents the results of an investigation on the adaptation and use of forecasting scenarios in a public institution in the tourism sector of Natal, RN, and more specifically, on the Municipal Secretary for Trade, Industry and Tourism - SECTUR. The methodology used is a case study. The data were collected through in-depth interviews with high-ranking members of the above-mentioned organization, and through official documents provided by the institution, which were subsequently submitted to content analysis. Despite the lack of conceptual knowledge of scenario approaches and their creation process, the institution was receptive to the method, and recognized its usefulness. The results also emphasize the gap that exists between scenario methodology and its application to the Tourism sector, suggesting a need for academic research, and administrative practice. Key words: Scenarios; Strategy; Tourism.